AI and US Bubble > 200 Tech Boom I RBI Reforms I Tata Cap IPO (1/3rd of peak unlisted price)

US Stock Market Valuations Surpass the Tech Boom

Our view - We have repeatedly maintained our bullishness on the US markets, needless to say, this is clearly overdone, but a bubble never bursts when too many people are worried - it typically bursts when this is all around optimism, which we feel is still some way away.

So if you hold US equities rebalance and hold on, but we do not recommend adding any new exposures, as when the bubble bursts it would be quite quite bad - question is when and not if (our guess is the when is still a few quarters away).

Source: https://www.apolloacademy.com/wp content/uploads/2025/09/ExtremeAIConcentration-090825.pdf

• The markets retook support at crucial Nifty levels as we were hoping/expecting last week.

• The US shutdown was an unexpected one, as most of the time it bounces back, which we feel will start back sometime next week.

• Markets continue to go through a time correction - albeit only on the headline index side - there is enough activity outside the index that isn't visible - big gainers and losers.

• Tata Capital IPO has been priced at almost 1/3rd the highest price it traded at on the unlisted site - another reminder that unlisted can be rewarding, but one needs to tread with caution and ensure they don’t supersede their max allocations (we don’t recommend more than 2% in any single unlisted stock).

• Small Saving Rates remain unchanged as expected.

• Apollo Research Report on US markets, Mag 7, and AI

• 3 out of 4 IPO's flop

• The Gold Rush of 2025

• Lessons by Hetty Green

• Multiple reform measures by the RBI

• The great NSE Data Heist

• Is the MF industry getting overcrowded

• US Government shutdown