House always Wins I Asset Class Returns I MTNL Defaults

Asset Class returns in India over the past 10 years - Kindly DO NOT extrapolate the averages as these are point to point and can be highly misleading - though yes, it gives a good idea on how rotational the performance is

• Markets dipped a bit and are at important support levels (Investors can position themselves for nibbling at any fall from here and biting below 24k Nifty levels).

• Markets are polarised between worries of slowing growth, trade wars vs ample liquidity, sectoral value emerging, and good macros (low interest rates, strong corporate and bank balance sheets - yes, specific NBFCs are in big trouble and I think it’s for their good). We believe, as specified before, the upside will come from value-driven sectors and capital goods, infra and rural consumption amongst others.

• HDFC Bank delivered good results and approved the bonus issuance. The Net Interest margins still need to improve, though.

• Markets, especially FII's, continue to remain on the sidelines on account of the uncertainty of the US-India trade deal. This, as we mentioned, is a big worry, as if the deal doesn't happen, any tariff escalation could lead to an impact on the affected sectors.

• MTNL defaults over the past few quarters on bonds - No impact seen on MFs or bonds, but shows a big difference over the past where PSUs never defaulted - something of note that should make investors discern about even PSU entities when buying bonds.

My Interview for Fortune magazine, where I speak about why in derivatives the house always wins, and the cognitive biases that impact derivative traders

• Stealth Mode IPO's

• Death of the Amex Lounge

• Don’t be scared of heights

• Cash Holding of MFs

• India Office Reit bounceback

• The tech philosophy and the AI opportunity

• HDFC Bank Results

• Vanguard goes big on Crypto

• Is Lenskart the next Paytm