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How to spot a pump and dump "stock" I IMF reduces growth I Gold at 1 lakh
Weekly Insights and Impact
Vivek B
April 27, 2025
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Change in Growth predictions by the IMF (As expected, India seems hit the least)
• While the US markets rebounded strongly the Indian markets find resistance at current levels which was an earlier support (24k – 24.5k levels).
• Gold touched 1 lakh (some chest thumping here – May 2022, we first suggested Gold at 43000 levels through this very newsletter, and then our 2025 Yearbook we predicted 1 lakh on Gold when it was around 70k).
• Our belief is for a very long term story Gold should continue to be 5% of one’s assets purely because the next 5 years will continue to be choppy in terms of global uncertainty, however since last 2 weeks we refrain from any tactical allocation to Gold for short term periods as it is ripe for some cool off.
• China and the US seem set for some reconciliation as China drops some tariffs on the US, while India is set to be the first country the US strikes a trade deal with.
• We would refrain from large incremental equity allocations at these levels (even though if the China-US and India-US trade deals happen, markets could continue to move higher).
• The next 24 months, we believe, will witness a new high in Indian equities but make no mistake the next round of leaders could be very different – Safe havens like banks, consumption (rural especially), energy, select NBFC’s, pharma could do well in our view.
• If the Nasdaq rebounds another 5%, we would trigger another partial exit (we had an exit call of 25% at the very top of 19500 Nasdaq earlier this year).
