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Sanjiv Bhasin & SEBI I HDB Financial I Jefferies' India Portfolio
Weekly Insights and Impact
Vivek B
June 22, 2025
As inflation reduces structurally, will equity returns also suffer, and expectations become more moderate ??? - Yes, we always believe that incrementally a 12% return in equity is par for the course and is good - what will be a concern is the post-tax non-equity return, which could keep flows into equity high
• Markets continue to oscillate in the current band with Friday's rise getting it more towards the higher end - A big move away from 25300 odd on the upside and 24750 on the downside will provide short-term direction.
• We remain a tad cautious at these levels, as like past weeks. With the US bombing Iran, and if other countries join in, in retaliation, then things could go bad.
• Irrespective of how bad the markets can go down, it'll be foolhardy to take big cash calls, which we always recommend against (unless the cash is for financial goals < 3 years).
• Our big worry is not the war but a potential change in the India / US equation as Pakistan becomes a US proxy due to the Iran war - these repercussions on trade deals could be more long-term, though it’ll remain limited to export and specific sectors.
• HDB Financial's IPO is at a steep discount to the grey markets - NSE investors seem worried, but a) We don’t see a similar situation, and b) We also don't believe in the very escalated valuations currently.
• Please be careful of whom you buy unlisted securities, especially ones like NSE where the delivery takes time - multiple reports of brokers fleeing with the money without the stocks being transferred.
• The coming week has a spate of IPO's and typically such frenzied events point to an intermediate top (which maybe could happen post some more rise this week if geopolitical issues get sorted).
