Sensex at 1 lakh in 2 years (GoalTeller's note) I Why gold isn't a sub for Eq

In this newsletter we answer the million-dollar question –

What do we think of the markets and how to play it:

Summary of the Note:

→ Sensex headed for 1 lakh over the next 12-24 months

→ Nifty trading at historical average valuations (could go higher) while the Mid and Small Cap indices are trading way higher

→ Gold continues to be attractive as an asset class for the next 12 – 24 months

→ The Nifty Small Cap, Nasdaq and Nifty 50 have been the best performers over the past 20 years while China has been one of the worst

→ Household saving into eq should cross 10% by 2030 which will keep the domestic liquidity very strong

→ Big Risks - Major domestic political uncertainties, major credit defaults (domestic or globally) creating a cascading impact, escalating geopolitical tensions making oil go much beyond 110 and stay there

→ Existing Investors – stay invested as per your risk profile, rebalance mid and small caps to the target levels (lower in most cases)

→ New Investors – Deploy 50% immediately and rest 50% over a 3m (Large Caps) and 6m (Small and Mid Caps) of your desired allocation

Click below to read our whole analysis.

• Worries about US growth coupled with high inflation led to a massive fall during the week in the US markets. However, stocks recovered well by Friday

• Indian markets remained resilient despite the US growth data while mid and small caps continued to outperform

• As the war worries ease out as we had suggested earlier, markets could move higher on the run up to the election outcome

• Worries on low voter turnout for the ruling party is speculative and we believe even if so, the impact wouldn’t be meaningful to harm the prospects of a stable government

• Read out detailed note on the markets outlook and investing strategies at these levels

Even though we remain bullish on Gold (Since 4500) – Why it cannot be substituted for equities

• Worries on stagflation in the US - Read More

• Hedge funds lawsuits for stealing option trading strategies on Indian markets - Read More

• Can India become a economic superpower - Read More

• The central bank gold stampede - Read More

• The death of the dollar - Read More

• Muted growth in Indian IT sector - Read More

• AI can kill all call centres - Read More

• The men who killed Google - Read More