1 year Returns: Decoded I Big Buyers of Silver I TCS I Agni V

Last 1 year Returns of Various Asset Classes - Decoded

China performs the best (Reversion to mean always happens - sooner or later - We have highlighted China many times in the past, and still believe there is enough room for more upside).

Nifty has seen a fair time correction, and the Nifty Trailing PE is now around 21.8 - exactly at long-term averages.

Bitcoin also has doubled over this period - this is another asset class which, despite us not advising, could continue to do well as the US government is piling on and treasuries globally are inching up exposure, so more liquidity will drive in here.

Over the next 1-2 years, money that was moving into USD will continue to move into asset classes like Bitcoin and precious metals, driving them higher (We have been bearish on USD and continue to remain bearish for the visible future).

• Indian markets continue to stay in a narrow zone without establishing a clear short-term direction - This in our view, is the best outcome considering a slowing economy - the current measures, like a potential GST cut, tax slabs, and lower interest rates, will start showing up in nos not before q3 and q4.

• The festive season will be a very strong indicator - an early festive season could help revive the economy as early as September onwards.

• Our strategy is unchanged - Balanced Adv Funds and STPs - Precious metals only through stagger and not more than 5%-7.5% of portfolio.

• We remain cautious on US markets as the party has been going on since long, however with Powell indicating that the Fed could explore rate cuts, we never know - the party could last longer - so will surely not suggest increasing exposure but just to stay invested for the residual holdings as a diversification - we had pared exposure earlier this year to book large gains and the last bit of exposure we continue to retain for now in our client portfolios.

Further fall could lead to a big exodus, but a dead cat bounce at least looks very plausible

THIS IS NOT A STOCK RECOMMENDATION AND IS ONLY AN INDICATOR OF HOW INDIAN IT STOCKS HAVE GOT BARRAGED, AND AS WE HAD STATED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE REMAIN STRUCTURALLY BEARISH ON INDIAN SOFTWARE SERVICES COS

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