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War : Mkt Impact
Weekly Insights and Impact
Vivek B
May 11, 2025
• Despite the possible breaches by the Pakistan side, the ceasefire seems to be a big relief for the markets and general public at large also (needless to say, the country and markets will continue to be on tenterhooks, for the next few days and months as well).
• Our belief continues that wars like this, as long as contained, will have limited short-term impact on equities.
• FII’s have been buying and positive for the last 2-3 months, with May already seeing >20k crore of FII inflows.
• As mentioned earlier Nasdaq is now around 18k levels and we recommend investors to book another 25% of gains (We will share a note with GT investors on the exact amount to be sold).
• If the escalations continue and is met by retaliation from India markets could correct as it’s trading at resistance levels, and if not there is a strong possibility of it moving to 25k and beyond.
• We continue to be a sceptic beyond 25k – 25.5k levels and optimistic below 23k levels – Though large caps should continue to do well over the next 6-12m.
• Positive news on the Ukraine front, India-UK trade deal, optimism by Trump on China’s trade deal will all add to an upside thrust in the very immediate term.
